The current situation in North Korea has become the focus of geopolitics. The geo-crisis between North Korea and South Korea began on March 26 this year with the Cheonan ship incident in South Korea. Afterwards, the conflict between the North and South Korea intensified. The two sides even exchanged fire near the northern boundary of the western waters on November 23, and North Korea moved to Yeonpyeong Island on the South Korean side. More than 100 shells were fired, and the South Korean side fired back more than 80 shells to North Korea. Subsequently, the United States, South Korea, and the United States and Japan successively held super-large-scale joint military exercises, and then South Korea announced on December 16 that it refused to cancel the Yanpyeong Island exercise and will hold live fire training in the area of Yanpyeong Island one day from the 18th to the 21st. On the 17th, the North Korean central media responded immediately that if South Korea continues to conduct live-fire artillery training near the border islands, North Korea will counterattack. The situation of the dispute makes the market nervous. Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun expounded China’s position on the current situation on the Korean Peninsula on December 18. The current situation on the Korean Peninsula is extremely complex Heraeus Precious Metals North Americaand sensitive. China expresses its deep concern and worries. Geopolitical tensions will lead to turbulence in the global financial market, increasing risk aversion in the market, which will benefit gold prices.
JanneyMontgomeryScott Chief Investment Analyst Mark Luschini pointed out that in the face of impending default and credit rating downgrade in the United States, negotiations on raising the debt ceiling have not made any progress, which choked the market.
The August employment data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday evening showed that the world's largest economy's series of efforts to address the labor market did not seem to be sustained. Although the unemployment rate has steadily fallen to 7.3%, its lowest point since December 2008. However, the number of non-agricultural employment is indeed far below the expected level of 180,000, and the actual value is only 169,000. Compared with the mixed data in August, the revised labor market data for June and July looks a little horrible. Among them, the number of newly-increased jobs in July was revised down from 162,000 to 104,000, and down 58,000. In June, it was reduced by 16,000. After the sudden release of the data, the market's concerns about the Fed's gradual reduction of QE in September have eased, and the US dollar index has fallen sharply. As of Friday's close, the US dollar index was at 82.15, down 48 basis points, or 0.59%. At the same time, gold and other non-US currencies have been boosted and strengthened sharply. Among them, spot gold as of Friday closed at 1,390.80 US dollars, up 24.8 US dollars, or 1.82%. The yen rose 100 basis points to 99.11, an increase of 1%. The euro also reversed the continuous decline in the market since the end of August, rising by 58 basis points, or 0.44%. The market generally believes that the employment data released on September 6 will provide the necessary guidance for the action to reduce the scale of asset purchases in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee's interest rate meeting held in the middle of the month. If the data performs well, it will strengthen the Fed’s determination to cut QE on a larger scale, because regardless of whether the economic recovery is really sound, the unemployment rate of the world’s largest economy has dropped from 8.1% at the time of QE to August this year. 7.3% of this is an indisputable fact. Correspondingly, if the data does not perform well, it is very likely that the Fed will reduce the scale of the September cut, and the possibility of the Fed's postponement of the cut cannot be ruled out. Therefore, after the release of the data, the market believes that the job market in August as a whole was slightly empty, which to a certain extent shakes the market's confidence in the Fed's reduction of QE in September. But in fact, although the 168,000 new jobs are less than the 180,000 expected, it is still higher than the data of 162,000 before the July revision. This reflects that despite some changes, the US job market is still growing. Continuous improvement. Therefore, we believe that the slightly bearish economic data will not have a long-term impact on the trend. The market is currently focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting to be held in the middle of the month and the evolution of the situation in Syria. The situation in Syria is still confusing. At the G20 summit, the heads of the 20 nations spent half a day hoping to discuss a solution to the Syrian issue. Regrettably, neither the camp that hopes to resolve it through military means nor the camp that hopes to resolve it through political means has not wavered in the slightest. Both Putin and Obama said that the meeting was constructive, but in the end they did not reach a consensus. On the contrary, Putin said after the meeting that if Syria is attacked, Russia will provide necessary assistance to Syria. On the other hand, Obama is preparing a speech to the people of the whole country to explain the necessity and urgency of a military strike against Syria. Currently, the United States, Turkey, Canada, Saudi Arabia and France support the use of force against Syria. Countries such as Russia, India, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Italy oppose military strikes. However, Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has shown an attitude that it is not a matter of concern and has not made any clear statements. Britain, the third largest economy in Europe, had to give up the possibility of military action due to opposition from Congress. There are relatively few important economic data this week. Noteworthy are the inflation data released on Monday and the retail sales and industrial output data released on Tuesday. In addition, Germany will release August CPI data on Wednesday. On the same day, a series of British labor market data including the unemployment rate will also be released. In the second half of the week, the Eurozone will announce industrial output data and the September European Central Bank's monthly report. The US will also release retail data and consumer confidence index on Friday night. The quality of the data will still have a certain impact on the mid-month Fed meeting. As the Super Week has just passed, the market needs to ease tensions to welcome the upcoming Fed Open Market Committee meeting. The trend next week is expected to be relatively stable, mainly focusing on the 1360-1420 range. In addition, the situation in Syria is imminent. If, as Obama wishes, NATO forces headed by the United States begin a military attack on Syria, the market's risk sentiment will change. Safe-haven assets such as gold, yen, and Swiss francs will be favored, which will effectively boost asset prices. But if the White House continues to postpone the time for military action, or any other news that is beneficial to the situation in Syria, it will increase the value of risky assets and put pressure on gold and other assets with a hedging attribute.
On April 28, the margin ratio announced on the official website of Shenzhen Development Bank was 21%, and the gold exchange announced it was 16%. However, the margin ratio of Mr. Yang's account was lower than the former and the latter. A few days later, Mr. Yang did not make up the security deposit in time, and the bank forcedly liquidated the 18 lots of silver in his account. This was in line with the agreement between the two parties and the bank should not be liable for compensation.
In this regard, Deutsche Bank issued a commodity research report yesterday, stating that gold cannot be regarded as excessively rising until it exceeds $2,000. The bank believes that there are two reasons why gold has set a record high. First, the market's attention has shifted from the US debt ceiling to the spread of the European debt crisis. Second, the diversification of central banks' foreign reserves continues.
But the previous trend of gold is more complicated. Since July, the hedging function of gold has attracted much attention from the market. Later, with the deepening of the European debt crisis, the uncertain growth prospects of the U.S. economy, and the increased risk of the global economic bottoming, the trend of gold is being affected. After the safe-haven funds rose to a high level, they broke away from the safe-haven properties and returned to the negative correlation with the US dollar. At present, due to various differences, the settlement of the European debt crisis has not yet seen a fundamental solution. At the same time, political turmoil in Italy has intensified, and the entire Eurozone has been shrouded in anxiety. The recent trend of gold is again dominated by risk aversion. Therefore, predicting the future trend of gold prices now requires a combination of multiple factors. Jiang Shu said. He also pointed out that since the fundamentals of the global economy are unlikely to change significantly in the next period of time, it is difficult for the price of gold to show Heraeus Precious Metals North Americaa trending market during the year. It should be a trend that is constantly finishing in the range and oscillating at a high level.
On the last trading day (8th), the market was closed for one day due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. But the release of Beijing's data has not been suspended. A good trade account pushed up precious metals such as gold during the Asian session. However, the signing of a ceasefire agreement between the strong US dollar and Ukraine has suppressed precious metals. As of yesterday's close, London Gold fell by US$13.05 to close at US$1255.25, a decrease of 1.03%; spot silver closed at US$19, a decrease of US$0.19, a decrease of 0.99%.
The current market is generally concerned that if the US dollar strengthens in the future, gold may weaken in stages. However, at present, it is still a high probability event that the US economy drags on the weakening of the dollar. The analyst of YinRi.com believes that the short-term adjustment of gold is basically over, and the upward trend is expected to start. The high point of the short-term dollar rebound stage has been reached, and the rebound trend of gold is forming. However, it should be noted that the process of international gold prices once again challenging new highs will not be smooth sailing. Short-term investors need to be more cautious.